Even if Apple has few high-resolution iPad Mini tablets to sell in November, it will still unveil the new device this month, risking a repeat of last year's iMac debacle, an analyst argued today.
Apple is expected to launch new iPads later this month — perhaps using the same timeline as last year, when it revealed the original iPad Mini on Oct. 23, 2012 — with refreshed full-sized 9.7-in. devices as well as updated Minis, which would presumably sport the same 7.9-in. display used in the first generation.
While rumors of an iPad Mini with a so-called "Retina" display — a high-resolution screen to match the sharpness of the full-sized sibling — have waxed, waned and now waxed again, the current chatter has the tablet on stage this month when Apple hosts its inevitable launch event.
The problem, according to Reuters today, is that supplies of the iPad Mini Retina will be seriously short, with sales either constrained by limited quantities or, worst case for Apple, pushed into early 2014.
If that's true, then Apple is facing a decision: Launch the iPad Mini with Retina anyway, or hold it for another time. The former risks a repeat of a 2012 fiasco, the latter means missing the very important tablet sales season around the holidays.
Last year Apple introduced redesigned iMacs in both the 21.5-in. and 27-in. screen sizes that were significantly thinner at their edges, came sans an optical drive — a first for the desktop system — and offered the option of a "Fusion Drive," which combined flash storage with a standard platter-based hard drive.
It was atypical of the detail-oriented company to reveal a product, defer shipping for weeks or more than a month, not accept pre-orders from customers, and at the same time withdraw the just-superseded models from sales. Analysts queried by Computerworld at the time could not remember an earlier instance of such a blunder.
Apple didn't begin taking iMac orders for more than a month, and even then told customers they would have to wait weeks for their computers to ship from factories in China. The larger 27-in. model did not reach customers until late December at the earliest, and except for the small number who got their orders in first, not until January 2013. It was March before the time between ordering and shipping fell to a relatively low one-to-three days.
The debacle was part of the reason why Mac sales plummeted 22% in the fourth quarter of 2012. In an earnings call with Wall Street analysts in January 2013, CEO Tim Cook blamed the iMac shortages for some of the downturn, and warned that supplies might not match demand until well into the second quarter.
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