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The state of spam: What to expect in 2009

JR Raphael | Jan. 5, 2009
Spam experts say new forms of annoyances are on the way for the new year.

SAN FRANCISCO, 3 JANUARY 2009 - Spam, oh spam -- can we ever get rid of you? 2008 saw a promising blow to the endless sea of junk mail, but the relief didn't last for long. Now, spam experts say new forms of annoyances are on the way for the new year.

"Some battles have been won in 2008, but the war is far from over," says Martin Thornberg, co-founder of SPAMfighter, a software development and spam research company.

So far, junk mail has managed to infiltrate only about 22 percent of its potential Internet territory, Thornberg says. That means more methods -- and, yes, more headaches -- are bound to be on the horizon.

The Spam Forecast

They may not have a doppler radar, but the SPAMfighter team has a full forecast -- and it doesn't look pretty. Here's what's topping the junk mail outlook for 2009:

• More social network spam. Spammers started bringing their ways to networks in increasing numbers throughout '08, and that trend is expected to climb quickly in the coming months.

• More complex networks behind the efforts. The shutdown of a Colorado hosting company in November had a significant effect because of its configuration: That single company served as the control center for the majority of botnets that were propagating unwanted messages. Researchers think as much as 75 percent of all junk mail was tied to that one place. Spammers will be smarter in 2009, SPAMfighter says, building more resilient and less centralized systems.

• More combined methods. Spam will be partnered with spyware and phishing tactics to create new kinds of "blended threats," SPAMfighter says.

• An increase in "spear phishing," or spam campaigns targeted to specific groups and interests. These might include messages tailored to employees of a particular company or organization, or even just to members of certain online networks. The messages are designed to look like official communications.

• A general rise in creativity. In 2008, SPAMfighter observed things like phishing attempts disguised as warnings against phishing. As even novice Internet users become more savvy, the disguises are likely to expand.

The Spam Equation

Many of the anti-spam precautions seem obvious -- but, obviously, everyone isn't taking them. The good news? The number of people still gullible is small. A recent University of California study (PDF) suggests only one in every 12.5 million spam messages gets a response.

The bad news? That tiny percentage is enough to generate $7,000 a day, or $3.5 million a year, for a decent-sized spam network, the study says. What's more, the activity could add as many as 8,500 new bots into the spam network every 24 hours.


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